Sawyers Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS66 KMFR 121754
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1054 AM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows marine stratus along the coast
and into portions of the Coquille Basin. Elsewhere it`s clear and
will remain clear today through tonight. We`ll have another hot
day for the interior with triple digit values likely for the
interior westside valleys and low to mid 90s east of the Cascades.
The interior westside valleys and east of the Cascades will have
gusty afternoon and early evening breezes.

Today will be the hottest day of the forecast period, with gradual
cooling setting up for the rest of the week with afternoon
temperatures near seasonal norms by the end of the week into next
weekend.

It will be dry through Thursday. Weak upper troughing will set up
Wednesday and lasting into next weekend. At the same time a couple
of weak fronts will move through and could bring isolated areas
of precipitation in portions of Coos and Douglas County Friday and
Saturday. Even than given the time of the year and pattern
recognition, precipitation will be hard to come by. Per the
usual, the NBM forecast pops are way overdone, and too far inland
and south. The most likely scenario is the one mentioned above and
the forecast during this time has been adjusted to reflect this
thinking.

Saturday there is some guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/kg
of MUCAPE could be present. While these MUCAPE values are on the
low end, we cannot rule out the small chance (10%-20%) for
thunderstorms along/near the Cascades and eastside areas Saturday
afternoon. This is Day6 so we still have some time to refine these
details. At this time we are not expecting widespread severe
weather, but isolated areas could see a strong storm or two with
lightning and strong winds as the main threats.

&&

.AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...Marine stratus is just barely clinging to
North Bend, with ceilings nearly clear but MVFR visibilities
remaining under areas of fog. North Bend should see a period of VFR
conditions into the afternoon before marine stratus rebuilds. LIFR
or LIFR levels are expected along the coast through the end of the
TAF period once the layer is in place.

Inland areas will see VFR levels through the TAF period. Periods of
gusty winds are possible this afternoon, but winds should ease into
the evening. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, August 12, 2025...Advisory
level seas will linger today, due to ongoing north winds and
residual steep seas. Strongest north winds and steep seas shift to
south of Cape Blanco around midweek as the thermal trough returns,
then a period of lower seas and weaker winds is possible late
Thursday into Friday. -BPN/Petrucelli


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, August 12, 2025...
Hazardous daytime temperatures remain in the forecast under a
persisting upper ridge. Today will be the hottest day of the
forecast period, followed by gradual cooling Wednesday into next
weekend. The main concern will be gusty afternoon breezes along with
low relative humidity for portions of fire zones 620, 622, and 624
this afternoon and evening, and again Wednesday afternoon and
evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon and
early this evening and a Fire Weather Watch also remains in effect
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

On Wednesday, weak upper troughing will set up resulting in slight
cooling for the interior. However the combination of winds and
relative humidity could still result in near critical conditions.
For now, a Fire Weather Watch is in place for Wednesday afternoon
and evening covering the same areas as today`s Red Flag Warning.

Upper troughing remains in place Thursday with further cooling.
We`ll still have the typical afternoon and early evening breezes
east of the Cascades and interior westside valleys, but relative
humidities will be higher, therefore critical conditions are
unlikely to be met.

An upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will drop south toward western
B.C. in the Gulf of Alaska Friday through weekend. The net result
will be a southwest flow over the area along with a couple of fronts
that could bring intermittent light rain to portions of Fire zones
615, 616 and 617 Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will trend lower
and relative humidities higher during this time.


This weekend, the upper flow will become southwesterly, along with
week shortwaves moving through. Guidance suggest marginal
instability east of the Cascades Saturday and Sunday east of the
Cascades and it`s in these areas where it could be unstable enough
for isolated thunderstorms. It`s still a ways out there and details
could change, so it`s something we`ll have to continue to watch
closely. Stay tuned. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Extreme Heat Warning until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ024-026.

     Heat Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ023-029.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ620-622.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for ORZ620-622.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ624.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for ORZ624.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080-081.

     Heat Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ082>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ370-376.

&&

$$